Biggio knows right field well. Gavin Lux is likely . For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Heres a powerful triple to center. With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. UZRs range component agrees. He went second to home on a single. The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. Heyward Still Part of Chicago, Senga's Physical, Steele's Approach, Farm System, and Other Cubs Bullets from . Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Perhaps rightfully so. . Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. by Handedness. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Jason Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Im not all that mad about it. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. by Retrosheet. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. How much will he be worth? Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Thats just how it goes. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. by Retrosheet. Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, 1 day ago. by Handedness. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. Contact David at [email protected] and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. Hows it going to go? Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. The grounders are just about all pulled. Chicago Cubs. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All he needs to do is stay healthy. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. by Retrosheet. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. by Handedness. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . . Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. Forget about everything else. Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. Just ask Jason Heyward. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. FanGraphs Membership. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Im not going to worry about it.. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Signup . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Contact David at [email protected] and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. SUMMARY But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com